The NFL MVP odds look a lot different than they did a week ago. Joe Burrow walked out of Madrid on Sunday as a co-favorite or outright favorite for the award, depending on where you look, and Josh Allen now has to answer on Monday night in Minneapolis.
A week ago, this wasn’t much of a race. Allen led every major board after Buffalo’s 36-10 win over Baltimore, and SI’s betting team had him at +140 after Week 8, with Burrow back at +425. Then Burrow threw for three touchdowns, ran for another and led Cincinnati past Atlanta 34-17 at the Bernabéu. By Sunday, the board had tightened to almost a coin flip.
Where the NFL MVP odds stand now
Different books and prediction markets have reacted at different speeds, so here’s a dated snapshot rather than a single number:
| Source | Josh Allen | Joe Burrow | Brock Purdy | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (via Bills On SI) | +225 | +225 | +500 | Sunday, Nov. 8 |
| FanDuel (via Bengals On SI) | not listed | +210 | not listed | Sunday, Nov. 8 |
| Polymarket (via The Red Zone) | 23% | 35% | 15% | Sunday, Nov. 8 |
| Kalshi | 26% | 29% | n/a | Monday, Nov. 9 |
The trend runs one way. Before Week 9, Sportsbook Review had Allen at +165, with Purdy second at +450 and Burrow third at +600. Covers, citing Kalshi, had Allen at 33% and Burrow at 21% on Nov. 3. Burrow has closed that gap in about six days, and the prediction markets now lean slightly toward him.
The rest of the top of the DraftKings board, per Bills On SI, had Chicago’s Caleb Williams at +650 and Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence at +850. Note that number for Williams came before his four-interception night against Tampa Bay, which is not the kind of game that helps an MVP case, even in a win.
Why Joe Burrow is surging
Start with the touchdowns. Burrow leads the NFL with 23 touchdown passes, according to Athlon Sports, and he has thrown 16 of them in the last four games while running for two more. Cincinnati has scored 30 or more points in four straight weeks, and the Bengals have won all four.
Sunday was the cleanest version of it. In our Bengals vs Falcons recap, Burrow went 24 of 29 for 271 yards and three scores with no interceptions, and he added a 1-yard sneak for a fourth touchdown. Ja’Marr Chase had eight catches for 142 yards in the first half alone. Their 55th touchdown together was the most by any quarterback-receiver pair since Chase came into the league in 2021.
Head coach Zac Taylor didn’t hide what he’s seeing. “Joe is playing at an unbelievably high level right now,” Taylor said after the win, per Athlon Sports.
The week before was messier but showed the same ceiling. Against Tennessee in Week 8, Burrow went 38 of 48 for 462 yards and five touchdowns, then ran in the overtime winner. He also threw three interceptions, which is why some analysts still see his game as boom-or-bust. Yahoo’s Brandon Anderson noted before Week 9 that Burrow led the league in completion percentage at 73% and was on pace for more than 5,100 passing yards.
The record matters as much as the stats. The Bengals are 6-2 and tied with Pittsburgh for first in the AFC North. MVP voters usually lean toward quarterbacks on top seeds. As Anderson laid out, the Bengals follow Atlanta with Pittsburgh, Washington, New Orleans and Cleveland. That’s a real chance to keep stacking wins.
Josh Allen’s case hasn’t gone anywhere
Here’s the thing: Allen hasn’t done anything wrong. He’s been off since Week 8 because Buffalo plays Monday night, and the market moved without him.
Through seven games, Allen has 1,793 passing yards, 11 touchdown passes and five interceptions. He also has nine rushing touchdowns, and Bills On SI noted he leads the NFL at 8.7 yards per pass attempt. That gives him 20 total touchdowns, a number few quarterbacks reach by midseason.
The team context is just as strong. Buffalo is 6-1, first in the AFC East and first in the league in scoring average. Allen also passed Jim Kelly for the most touchdown passes in franchise history in the win over Baltimore. He won the award in 2024 and has been a finalist five times, so voters know his game well.
Even before Sunday, Allen’s lead had slipped a bit. Anderson wrote that Allen had slowed over the past month but was still on pace for 5,000 yards and 49 combined touchdowns. Those are MVP numbers in any year.
What Allen doesn’t have is the recent highlight run Burrow has put together. MVP races are partly about momentum and partly about who’s playing in prime time. Allen gets that chance tonight.
Brock Purdy and the rest of the field
Brock Purdy is the clear third man. San Francisco beat Las Vegas on Sunday and sits at 7-1, the best record in the NFC. Coming out of the bye, Sharp Football Analysis had Purdy third in the league in completion rate (69.2%) and fourth in yards per attempt (8.3). If the 49ers grab the NFC’s top seed, Purdy will stay in this conversation all season, especially if both AFC quarterbacks split votes.
Williams is the wild card. The Bears are 7-2 and have won four straight, but four interceptions on Sunday night is going to stick with voters. Lawrence has the Jaguars at 6-2 with a friendly schedule ahead, and he could climb quietly if Jacksonville keeps winning.
For context, Matthew Stafford won last season’s award in a close vote and isn’t in this year’s top tier. It’s a reminder that these races often turn in December, not November.
What Bills vs Vikings means for the NFL MVP odds
Tonight’s game is the best test Allen will see all year. Minnesota is 6-1 and has the league’s No. 2 defense at 271.6 yards allowed per game, according to Bills On SI. The Vikings are No. 1 against the pass and have the NFL’s highest sack rate. That’s a lot of pressure for an offensive line that has had injury questions all week, as we covered in our Bills vs Vikings preview.
If Allen plays well and Buffalo moves to 7-1, expect his odds to shorten again and the race to look like a true two-man fight. If he struggles against Brian Flores’ blitz packages, Burrow could leave this week as the clear favorite.
Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC. Our guide to watching Bills vs Vikings has every streaming option.
Buffalo and Cincinnati are also both chasing the AFC’s top seed, and every win either team stacks shapes the AFC playoff picture, which will drive the MVP debate as much as any stat line.
Midway through the season, the honest answer is that there are two MVP favorites. Burrow has the hot hand. Allen has the stronger body of work and a chance to remind everyone of that tonight.
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