Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills close out Week 9 on Monday night in Minneapolis, where one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses runs into one of its stingiest defenses. Both teams are 6-1, and both are chasing the top seed in their conference.
Kickoff at U.S. Bank Stadium is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC. Buffalo is a 3.5-point road favorite, with the total sitting at 45.5.
Strength vs. strength
The numbers explain why this one has the feel of a January game. Buffalo is scoring 33.3 points per game. Minnesota is allowing 13.3. Something has to give.
The Vikings’ defense under coordinator Brian Flores is giving up 271.6 total yards per game, second-fewest in the league, and its pass rush gets home more often than any other unit in the NFL. That pressure is the whole story of this matchup. Flores’ defense is built on the blitz, and Buffalo’s coaches spent the week preparing for extra rushers coming from everywhere.
Flores knows exactly what he’s up against. He has watched Allen since the quarterback’s rookie year, going back to his time on the New England staff, and he didn’t hold back on Allen this week: “Josh is one of the best players in our league.”
Allen is rolling into prime time
Allen comes in off a 36-10 win over Baltimore in which he completed 21 of 34 passes for 289 yards, threw two touchdowns, ran for another and added 30 rushing yards. It wasn’t his cleanest first half, including a first-quarter interception, but he took over after halftime as Buffalo outscored the Ravens 20-3 in the final two quarters.
That game also put Allen alone atop the Bills’ record book. His 11-yard touchdown pass to DJ Moore in the fourth quarter was the 259th of his career, regular season and playoffs combined, moving him past Hall of Famer Jim Kelly for the most in franchise history.
Through seven games, Allen has 1,793 passing yards, 11 touchdown passes and five interceptions. The rushing line is where he separates himself from everyone else at the position: he has nine rushing touchdowns, after scoring eight on the ground before Week 8 and adding a one-yard dive against Baltimore. Near the goal line, he’s still Buffalo’s most reliable short-yardage weapon.
The win also kept a remarkable streak alive. Buffalo has now won its first game after the bye in 12 straight seasons, and the Bills remain unbeaten in post-bye games with Allen as their starter.
The left side of Buffalo’s line is the worry
If there’s a reason to be nervous about Buffalo on Monday, it’s the injury report, and specifically the two men Allen needs most against a blitz-heavy front.
Left tackle Dion Dawkins (ribs) did not practice all week and is questionable. Left guard Alec Anderson (ankle) is also questionable after injuring his right ankle on a red zone play against the Ravens. Head coach Joe Brady said Dawkins doesn’t necessarily need to practice to play, which is about as hopeful as a coach gets about a player who never took the field.
If Anderson can’t go, veteran Austin Corbett is in line to start at left guard. The good news on the right side: tackle Spencer Brown, who missed Week 8 with a back injury, practiced all week and has no injury designation.
| Player | Team | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR Josh Palmer | Bills | Hamstring | Out |
| LT Dion Dawkins | Bills | Ribs | Questionable |
| LG Alec Anderson | Bills | Ankle | Questionable |
| QB Kyler Murray | Vikings | Hamstring | Out |
| WR Jauan Jennings | Vikings | Calf | Out |
| RB Demond Claiborne | Vikings | Knee | Out |
Receiver Josh Palmer (hamstring) has been ruled out, though Brady said he is not an injured reserve candidate. DJ Moore and Keon Coleman, both limited in practice with shoulder issues, carry no injury designation and are good to go, as is tight end Dalton Kincaid.
Here’s why the offensive line matters so much. Buffalo’s plan against Minnesota almost has to start with James Cook and the run game, both to slow the pass rush and to keep Allen out of obvious passing downs. But the Vikings also have one of the best run defenses the Bills have seen this season. If Buffalo’s makeshift left side can’t win at the line of scrimmage on early downs, Allen will be throwing on third-and-long against Flores’ pressure packages all night.
Carson Wentz gets his shot in Minnesota
The Vikings will be without starting quarterback Kyler Murray, who was ruled out Thursday with a hamstring injury. Carson Wentz will start, and he’ll do it without receiver Jauan Jennings, who is out with a calf injury.
This start matters more for Minnesota’s front office than almost any game on the schedule. The Vikings are averaging 20 points per game, sixth-worst in the league, and they’re coming off their first loss of the season, to Detroit. The trade deadline is Tuesday, and Minnesota will have roughly 16 hours after the final whistle to make a move at quarterback if Wentz struggles.
The name most linked to the Vikings has been Colts quarterback Daniel Jones, who spent part of 2024 in Minnesota. But NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported Saturday that the Colts have told interested teams they are not trading Jones. That makes Monday night even more important for Wentz. A strong performance against a 6-1 team could settle the position for now. A shaky one could send the Vikings scrambling for another option.
What Buffalo’s defense has to do
Buffalo’s defense just put together its most aggressive game of the season. Against Baltimore, coordinator Jim Leonhard blitzed on 64.5% of dropbacks, Buffalo’s highest rate since 2021, according to Next Gen Stats. The Bills also played man coverage on 54.8% of dropbacks, up from 19.5% coming into the game.
That approach worked against a Ravens team down to its backup quarterbacks. Wentz is a different kind of test: a veteran who has seen just about every look, with Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson as his top targets. If Buffalo can make Minnesota’s offense one-dimensional the way it did Baltimore’s, this one may not stay close for long.
Our take
This is the best matchup of Week 9 on paper, and the history between these teams says it won’t be boring. Allen won his first career road start in Minneapolis in 2018, a 27-6 upset. When the teams met in Orchard Park in 2022, the Vikings won a wild 33-30 overtime game that turned on two late Allen turnovers, including an end zone fumble.
Our read: Buffalo wins if Allen protects the football and the Bills’ left side holds up long enough to keep Cook involved. The Vikings’ defense is good enough to make this a one-possession game, especially if Dawkins and Anderson can’t play. But Minnesota is asking a backup quarterback to keep pace with an offense averaging 33.3 points a game, and that’s a lot to put on Wentz.
Expect a close, physical first half, and expect Allen to have the ball in his hands when it matters.
What’s next
The winner leaves Monday night at 7-1 and in strong position in the race for the top seed. For Buffalo, Week 10 brings a trip to MetLife Stadium to face the New York Jets on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1 p.m. ET. For Minnesota, the bigger decision might come before then, with the trade deadline arriving less than a day after the final whistle.
Sources: Buffalo Bills injury report, Vikings final injury report, Bills advanced stats vs. Ravens, CBS Sports, Star Tribune, ProFootballTalk
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