The AFC playoff picture has a clear top tier at the halfway point, and almost no room at the bottom of the bracket.
Six teams sit at 6-2 or better, the Buffalo Bills hold the No. 1 seed heading into Monday night, and the Denver Broncos are one Bills loss away from taking it. Below them, the race for the final wild-card spot is already tight, with New England holding on despite a lopsided loss and Cleveland sitting just outside on a tiebreaker.
Here’s how the AFC looks after Sunday’s Week 9 games, with Buffalo still to play at Minnesota.
AFC playoff picture: the current seven
| Seed | Team | Record | Playoff odds (SI) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 6-1 | 97% | At Minnesota on Monday night |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | 7-2 | 91% | Five straight wins; bye in Week 10 |
| 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-2 | 98% | Two of the next three vs. 1-7 Tennessee |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-2 | 79% | Leads AFC North on tiebreaker |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | 90% | Top wild card |
| 6 | Cincinnati Bengals | 6-2 | 93% | Four straight wins |
| 7 | New England Patriots | 5-4 | 72% | Holds the last spot on a 5-1 AFC record |
In the hunt: Cleveland Browns (5-4), Las Vegas Raiders (4-5), Baltimore Ravens (4-5), Houston Texans (3-5).
Long shots: New York Jets (2-7), Indianapolis Colts (2-7), Miami Dolphins (1-7), Tennessee Titans (1-7), Los Angeles Chargers (0-8).
Playoff probabilities come from Sports Illustrated’s Week 9 projections.
The race for No. 1: Bills vs. Broncos
Buffalo enters Monday night as the AFC’s top seed at 6-1. But Denver improved to 7-2 with another comeback win over Carolina and now sits on a bye, waiting to see what happens in Minneapolis.
The math is simple. If the Bills lose to the Vikings, Denver takes over the No. 1 seed. If Buffalo wins, it improves to 7-1 and stays on top.
There’s a bigger date on the calendar, too. The Bills and Broncos meet on Christmas, according to Yahoo Sports, in a game that could decide home-field advantage. For now, Buffalo’s focus is Brian Flores’ defense, which has allowed a league-low 13.3 points per game. Our Bills vs Vikings preview breaks down that matchup.
AFC North: a three-team fight
The AFC North might be the most interesting division in the conference.
Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are both 6-2. The Steelers hold the division lead and the No. 4 seed because of a better conference record, and they spent Week 9 on a bye. The Bengals, meanwhile, have won four straight, including a 34-17 win over Atlanta in Madrid.
They settle some of this next Sunday night, when Pittsburgh visits Cincinnati in prime time.
Cleveland isn’t out of it at 5-4, but the Browns have lost two straight, including Sunday’s 23-22 overtime loss in New Orleans. They’re the No. 8 seed, tied with New England’s record but losing out on the conference-record tiebreaker. Their quarterback decision this week, between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders, could shape the rest of their season.
Baltimore, at 4-5 and riding a four-game losing streak, is the fourth team in the division. The Ravens are betting that Jacoby Brissett can keep them alive until Lamar Jackson returns from thumb surgery.
AFC West: Denver in control, Kansas City lurking
Denver has won five straight and has already played both of its games against Kansas City, which SI notes makes the Broncos the favorite in the division.
The Chiefs are still very much alive at 6-2. More important for Kansas City, the elbow scare that had the whole city holding its breath appears to be minor, with Patrick Mahomes’ MRI showing no major injury. Kansas City visits Atlanta on Sunday.
Las Vegas is 4-5 and on the edge of the race. The Chargers are 0-8 and, after a 44-22 loss to Houston, are dealing with an injury to Justin Herbert’s non-throwing hand.
AFC South: Jacksonville’s to lose
Jacksonville has been one of the AFC’s best stories. The Jaguars are 6-2 with a 98% playoff chance in SI’s projections, and two of their next three games come against 1-7 Tennessee. That’s about as friendly a stretch as a contender can ask for.
Houston kept its season alive with a dominant 44-22 win over the Chargers in which C.J. Stroud threw five touchdown passes, but the Texans still sit at 3-5. Indianapolis is 2-7 after five straight losses and is weighing whether to trade running back Jonathan Taylor.
AFC East: Bills ahead, Patriots hanging on
Buffalo leads the division at 6-1. New England, the defending AFC East champion, is 5-4 after a 45-27 loss to Green Bay but still owns a head-to-head win over the Bills from Week 4 in Orchard Park, which matters if the division race tightens.
The Patriots also have a tough few weeks ahead: they play Detroit in Munich on Sunday, then take their bye in Week 11. If the season ended today, SI notes, New England would travel to Denver in the wild-card round, a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game.
The Jets are 2-7, and the Dolphins are 1-7. The Bills visit the Jets next Sunday.
Week 10 games with AFC playoff stakes
- Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (Sunday night): First place in the AFC North on the line.
- Buffalo at New York Jets: The Bills can’t afford a slip against a 2-7 team after a short week.
- Houston at Cleveland: The loser falls further behind in the wild-card race.
- Kansas City at Atlanta: The Chiefs need to keep pace with Denver during the Broncos’ bye.
- New England vs. Detroit (Munich): The Patriots’ grip on the No. 7 seed faces a tough test.
- Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore (Monday night): Brissett’s first start for a Ravens team that can’t keep losing.
What’s next for the AFC playoff picture
The first change could come in a matter of hours. A Bills loss on Monday night hands Denver the top seed, while a Bills win restores a full-game cushion in the loss column.
FieldPylon will update the AFC playoff picture after Monday night and again after every week of the season.
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