The 2026 NFL Rookie of the Year races look nothing like they did in August. The preseason favorite on offense is on injured reserve, the No. 1 overall pick has not thrown a regular-season pass yet but now tops the betting market, and the defensive race has turned into a New York tug-of-war between two top-five picks who share a stadium.
With most teams at or past the halfway mark, here is where both races stand, who has the strongest case on the numbers, and what each contender needs over the final eight or nine games to win the award.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: a wide-open race
No offensive rookie has taken control of this race at midseason. The market has changed favorites several times, and the gap between the top five candidates is small.
Arizona running back Jeremiyah Love, the No. 3 overall pick, opened as the clear favorite. Sharp Football Analysis listed him as short as +150 before the season. His rookie year has been defined by ankle injuries instead. Love suffered a high-ankle sprain in the preseason opener, missed two games during the season, and then hurt his other ankle in the Nov. 1 overtime win over Dallas. The Cardinals placed him on injured reserve, and he is expected to miss four to five weeks, AZFamily reported. In six games he has 268 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown, plus 11 catches for 36 yards and another score, per Bleacher Report. Barring a huge December, he is out of the race.
That opened the door for a group of wide receivers and one late-arriving quarterback.
The OROY contenders at a glance
| Player | Team | Pick | Production so far |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Mendoza, QB | Raiders | No. 1 | First NFL start Sunday vs. Seattle |
| Denzel Boston, WR | Browns | No. 39 | 32 catches, 507 yards, 3 TD |
| Carnell Tate, WR | Titans | No. 4 | 34 catches, 413 yards, 1 TD (7 games) |
| KC Concepcion, WR | Browns | No. 24 | 37 catches, 437 yards, 1 TD |
| Jonah Coleman, RB | Broncos | No. 108 | 191 rush yards, 3 TD; 13 catches, 128 yards |
Stats from Yahoo Sports’ rookie report after Week 9 and its Week 9 OROY rankings.
Fernando Mendoza: the new favorite who hasn’t started yet
The biggest shift came at the trade deadline. When the Raiders sent Kirk Cousins to Minnesota, Mendoza became the starter, and the market moved right away. Sports Illustrated’s betting desk listed him at +350, just ahead of Denzel Boston at +370 and Carnell Tate at +425. On Kalshi’s prediction market, Mendoza was at 22%, ahead of Denver’s Jonah Coleman at 17% and Boston at 16%, Covers reported.
Why would a quarterback with zero starts be the favorite? Position and profile. A No. 1 overall pick taking over a team draws more attention than any receiver or running back can. Our breakdown of how the Cousins trade made Mendoza the starter and the full inside story of the Cousins deal cover how the Raiders got here.
The problem is time. Las Vegas has only eight games left, which leaves Mendoza half a season to build a full-season case. He needs to be good right away, starting Sunday against Seattle. Our Seahawks vs. Raiders preview looks at what he faces in his debut.
He is not the only rookie quarterback getting a sudden chance. Third-round pick Carson Beck is starting for Arizona after Gardner Minshew’s injury and the Jacoby Brissett trade, as covered in our story on Beck taking over the Cardinals. Beck sat at +1600 in SI’s odds list. Both rookies are part of a wider wave of Week 10 quarterback changes around the league.
Denzel Boston: the most productive rookie receiver
On pure numbers, the case for Boston is the strongest of any offensive rookie. The Browns took him 39th overall, and he leads all rookie pass catchers with 507 receiving yards to go with three touchdowns. He did that despite Cleveland’s unsettled quarterback situation. In Week 9, with Deshaun Watson out, Boston caught all six of his targets for 98 yards against New Orleans, SI’s draft team noted.
Boston has been a big-play threat all season. His challenge is the same thing that limits every Browns pass catcher: the passing game around him. Watson is back as the starter, as we covered in the Browns’ QB decision for Houston, and how that offense functions will shape Boston’s second half.
Carnell Tate: the steady first-round option
Tennessee’s No. 4 pick has been the most consistent offensive rookie. Tate was the market favorite for several weeks in October and was named Offensive Rookie of the Month for October after catching 21 passes for 290 yards and a touchdown. Through seven games he has 34 catches for 413 yards and a score.
Tate’s case is about volume and role. He has become the focal point of a Titans passing game that has struggled overall. The ceiling on his numbers is tied to Cam Ward and an inconsistent offense, which is why Boston has more yards despite being a second-round pick.
KC Concepcion and Jonah Coleman: the risers
Boston is not even the only Browns rookie in the race. KC Concepcion, the No. 24 pick, has 37 catches for 437 yards and a touchdown, including 251 receiving yards over his last three games. His first career touchdown was a 64-yard catch from Shedeur Sanders that gave Cleveland a fourth-quarter lead over the Saints. The two Browns rookies combined for 10 catches, 183 yards and a touchdown in that 23-22 loss, Yardbarker noted. Having two strong candidates on one team could split votes, though.
The most interesting name might be Denver’s Jonah Coleman, a fourth-round pick at No. 108. He has 191 rushing yards and three touchdowns plus 13 catches for 128 yards, and he handled 21 touches in Week 9. His go-ahead fourth-quarter touchdown helped the Broncos win their fifth straight game in Carolina, according to SI. Among the top contenders, Coleman is the one playing a big role on a clear winner, and Denver is 7-2. That matters to voters.
FieldPylon’s OROY read at midseason
If the vote happened today, Boston has the best statistical case, with Tate close behind. But this award is decided in December, and two players have the clearest path to a strong finish. Mendoza gets eight starts and the attention that comes with being the No. 1 pick. Coleman has a growing role on a contender. Our order right now: Boston, Mendoza, Tate, Coleman, Concepcion, with the warning that Mendoza could jump to No. 1 with a strong first month.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Reese vs. Bailey
The defensive race is easier to frame. It is a two-man contest between the Giants’ Arvell Reese and the Jets’ David Bailey. Bailey went No. 2 overall, Reese went No. 5, and both have lived up to it.
| Player | Team | Pick | Key numbers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arvell Reese, LB | Giants | No. 5 | 4.5 sacks, 14 pressures, NFC Defensive Player of the Week (Week 9) |
| David Bailey, Edge | Jets | No. 2 | 7.5 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, 12 QB hits, 10 TFL |
Arvell Reese: the complete linebacker
Reese is the favorite. Kalshi had him at 55% to Bailey’s 31%, Covers reported. His case rests on doing everything well. He plays mostly inside linebacker, has been strong in coverage, and has become a weapon as a blitzer. Despite rushing the quarterback only about 11 times per game, he has 4.5 sacks and 14 pressures, ESPN’s midseason award rankings noted, and he has allowed a passer rating of 81.3 in coverage.
His Week 9 game against Philadelphia was his best yet: three sacks and a forced fumble in a Giants win, per SI’s midseason awards. It earned him NFC Defensive Player of the Week, which we noted in our roundup of this week’s Player of the Week winners. Reese and the Giants play Washington tonight on Thursday Night Football. Our Commanders vs. Giants preview has the matchup.
David Bailey: the sack and turnover machine
Bailey has the louder raw numbers. He has 7.5 sacks, tied for fourth in the NFL, and leads the league with five forced fumbles, tied with Fred Warner. He also has 44 total tackles. Early in the season he set a pace no rookie had matched: his 34 pressures through his first seven games were the most since the stat began being tracked in 2016, Lineups.com noted.
Bailey also had the most famous moment of any rookie defender this season. In Week 9 he beat Chiefs tackle Jaylon Moore for two strip sacks in four plays, and one of those hits looked for a moment like it had hurt Patrick Mahomes. The MRI showed no major damage, as we reported on Mahomes’ elbow scare, and he practiced fully on Wednesday. The Jets still lost that game 35-12, as covered in our Jets-Chiefs recap.
The case against Bailey has two parts. He missed Week 8 with a groin injury, and ESPN pointed out that a couple of his sacks were generous, including one in the opener where he never touched Cam Ward. The larger issue may be the team around him. The Jets are 2-7, and the best defensive rookies usually stand out more on winning teams.
FieldPylon’s DROY read at midseason
Reese is the right favorite. Bailey’s sacks and forced fumbles are louder, but Reese impacts more snaps in more ways, and voters tend to reward the complete player. The tiebreaker could come this Sunday and beyond. Bailey faces the 7-1 Bills, and big games against good teams carry weight. If Bailey reaches double-digit sacks with more strip sacks in December, this could flip.
What decides both races from here
- Availability. Love’s season shows how fast a case can disappear. Bailey’s groin is worth watching.
- Quarterback play. Boston, Concepcion and Tate all depend on unstable QB rooms. Mendoza’s own play will decide his case.
- Team success. Coleman and the Broncos are winning. Reese’s Giants are competitive. Bailey’s Jets are not.
- Big moments. Primetime games and late-season playoff races shape how voters remember a season.
For the full midseason picture, including the MVP race and the playoff chase, see our 2026 NFL midseason report. We will update this rookie tracker as the races move.
Sources: Yahoo Sports (2), Sports Illustrated (2, 3), ESPN via ABC7, Covers, SI Betting, Sharp Football Analysis, Lineups.com, Bleacher Report, AZFamily, Yardbarker, Wikipedia
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