NFC Playoff Picture After Week 9: 49ers Lead, NFC North Logjam

The NFC playoff race at the halfway point comes down to one strange fact: the NFC North might send all four of its teams to the postseason, while the NFC South could send a team with a losing record. Between those two extremes sit the 7-1 San Francisco 49ers, a surprising New York Giants team and a crowded fight for the last wild-card spot that includes last season’s champion.

Here is the full NFC playoff picture after Week 9: the current seeds, how likely each team is to get in, the tiebreakers that matter, and the games that will decide the race over the next eight weeks.

NFC playoff seeds if the season ended today

Seeding per Yahoo Sports’ NFC standings after Week 9. On the outside looking in: the Seahawks (5-4), Rams (5-4), Cowboys (4-5), Saints (3-5), Buccaneers (3-6), Falcons (3-6), Cardinals (3-6), Commanders (2-5-1) and Eagles (2-7).

The division leaders

No. 1 San Francisco 49ers (7-1)

The 49ers own the NFC’s best record and the inside track to the only first-round bye. They bounced back from their Week 7 loss to Atlanta and a bye week with a 38-17 win over the Raiders, Sports Illustrated noted. The betting market treats them as nearly a lock: FOX Sports listed them at -6000 to make the playoffs, the shortest price in the conference.

The next two weeks will tell us whether that bye is realistic. San Francisco visits Dallas on Sunday, then hosts the 6-2 Vikings in Week 11, a game SI flagged as one with real implications for the top of the NFC. The 49ers also added Keenan Allen at the deadline, as covered in our Keenan Allen trade story. Our 49ers vs. Cowboys preview has this week’s matchup.

No. 2 Chicago Bears (7-2)

Chicago moved up to the No. 2 seed and into first place in the NFC North after Minnesota lost to Buffalo on Monday night. The Bears got there the hard way on Sunday night: Caleb Williams threw a career-high four interceptions against Tampa Bay, and the Bears still won their fourth straight game, per SI. They turned the ball over five times and let the Buccaneers tie it late before pulling it out, Bleacher Report noted.

The Bears are on bye in Week 10, so they can only watch as Detroit, Minnesota and Green Bay play. Their schedule is a concern. SI counted six remaining opponents with winning records, more than San Francisco or New York. Even so, FOX had Chicago at -700 to make the playoffs, second in the NFC.

No. 3 New York Giants (5-2-1)

The Giants are the surprise of the conference. Their 19-11 win in Philadelphia pushed their playoff odds to 85% and their chances of winning the NFC East to 83.8% in PFN’s simulations, Yahoo Sports reported. That division edge is doing most of the work, because nobody else in the East is above .500.

The underlying numbers back them up. New York ranks 14th in offensive EPA per play and 11th on defense, and since Sept. 27 it has lost only once, Giants Media HQ noted. Rookie linebacker Arvell Reese, the reigning NFC Defensive Player of the Week, leads a defense that has carried them. The Giants open Week 10 tonight against Washington; see our Commanders vs. Giants preview.

No. 4 Carolina Panthers (3-5)

Carolina holds the NFC South lead despite a losing record, thanks to a 1-1 division mark that breaks the tie with New Orleans, per Yahoo. Every team in the South is under .500, so the division winner could finish with a record that would not earn a wild card anywhere else. Sunday’s Panthers-Saints game is effectively a first-place game. FOX had Carolina at +205 to make the playoffs and the Saints at +480, with Tampa Bay at +140 the favorite of the group despite sitting third.

The NFC North logjam

This is the defining storyline of the NFC. All four NFC North teams are currently in playoff position, Yahoo noted, and PFN’s simulations gave the four clubs a combined 320.9 percentage points of playoff odds, an expected 3.2 playoff teams from one division, according to Yahoo’s Week 9 odds report.

No. 5 Detroit Lions (6-2)

Detroit sits ahead of Minnesota because it beat the Vikings head-to-head, per Yahoo. The Lions play the 5-4 Patriots in Munich on Sunday morning. Our Patriots vs. Lions Munich preview has the details.

No. 6 Minnesota Vikings (6-2)

The Vikings lost their grip on the division in Monday’s 23-6 loss to Buffalo, covered in our Bills-Vikings recap. Their answer was to bring back Kirk Cousins at the deadline, and he makes his first start Sunday at Lambeau Field. Then comes the trip to San Francisco. Two road games against playoff teams in two weeks will decide whether Minnesota stays in the top six.

No. 7 Green Bay Packers (6-3)

Green Bay holds the last spot after a 45-27 win in New England, as covered in our Packers-Patriots recap, and Jordan Love was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week. The Packers host Minnesota on Sunday as 3-point favorites, and a win would pull them even with the Vikings in the loss column. Our Vikings vs. Packers preview breaks down the rematch of Minnesota’s 39-22 opening win.

The catch is that the four North teams still have division games left against each other, so they will take wins from each other. The likeliest outcome is three North teams in the field, not four. That leaves the door open for a team from the West.

The bubble: Seahawks, Rams and Cowboys

Seattle Seahawks (5-4)

The defending champions are on the outside right now. Seattle is in a three-way battle with the Packers and Rams for the last wild-card spot, Athlon Sports noted. FOX put the Seahawks at -102 to make the playoffs, essentially a coin flip. Quarterback injuries have made it harder, as covered in our story on Seattle’s QB situation. Sunday’s trip to Las Vegas against rookie Fernando Mendoza’s first start is a game Seattle needs, as our Seahawks vs. Raiders preview explains.

Los Angeles Rams (5-4)

The Rams entered the season as favorites to reach the Super Bowl, according to Athlon, and they are still priced like a contender. Bleacher Report listed them at +1300 to win it all, and FOX had them at -108 to make the playoffs. The problem is availability. Puka Nacua is out, and the Rams did not trade for a receiver, as covered in our Nacua update. Their Week 10 trip to Arizona comes against rookie Carson Beck’s first start.

One date to circle: the Rams and Seahawks play each other twice in the last three weeks of the regular season, Athlon pointed out. If the NFC North does cannibalize itself, those two games could decide the No. 7 seed.

Dallas Cowboys (4-5)

Dallas is one game behind the bubble teams. FOX listed the Cowboys at +215 to make the playoffs. Hosting the 49ers on Sunday is the kind of game that changes that number quickly in either direction.

Long shots and lost seasons

The biggest collapse in the conference belongs to Philadelphia. The Eagles are 2-7 and FOX listed them at +6500 to make the playoffs. The losing streak reached seven games, and Nick Sirianni has opened the door to staff changes, as we covered in our Eagles story. Washington (2-5-1) sits at +820, Atlanta (3-6) at +345 and Arizona (3-6) at +6900.

FieldPylon’s NFC projection

Our read with eight games left:

• Bye: San Francisco is the clear favorite, but the Week 11 game against Minnesota could tighten the race.
• NFC North: three teams make it. Chicago’s schedule worries us more than its record, and Detroit’s head-to-head win over Minnesota is a real edge.
• NFC East: the Giants win it. The rest of the division is too far back.
• NFC South: whoever wins Panthers-Saints and the next two division games takes the lead. A 9-8 or 8-9 champion is possible.
• Last spot: a three-team race between the fourth NFC North team, Seattle and the Rams, likely decided in the final three weeks.

For the other conference, see our AFC playoff picture after Week 9. For how this week’s games affect both races, read our ranking of every Week 10 game by playoff stakes.

Sources: Yahoo Sports (2), Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports (2), Bleacher Report, Athlon Sports, Giants Media HQ