A year ago, a 6-2 start would have been a parade-level event in Jacksonville. Now it is the expectation. The Jaguars sit atop the AFC South by three games, own the NFL’s best point differential and just pushed their chips in at the trade deadline. After Week 9, Yahoo Sports moved them to No. 1 in its power rankings, arguing that with no clear Super Bowl favorite, Jacksonville decided to become one.
Is that real, or is this a hot first half? FieldPylon looked at the numbers, the roster moves and the schedule to answer the question that matters most in Duval: are the Jaguars the AFC’s best team?
The Jaguars by the numbers
| Stat | Number |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-2, first in AFC South (three-game lead) |
| Point differential | +108, best in the NFL |
| Wins by 20+ points | 4 |
| Losses | 2, by a combined 10 points |
| Trevor Lawrence | 1,932 yards, 18 TD, 4 INT, 111.7 rating, 8.6 yards per attempt |
| Record since start of 2025 | 19-7 |
| Playoff odds (PFN model) | 99.4% |
Figures from FOX Sports, Forbes, BVM Sports and Yahoo Sports.
How the Coen era got here
The turnaround started with a coaching change. Jacksonville fired Doug Pederson after the 2024 season and hired Liam Coen, and the effect on Trevor Lawrence was visible within a year. Lawrence started slowly in 2025 while learning the new offense, but after a 5-4 start the Jaguars won their final eight regular-season games, finished 13-4 and took the AFC South, Jaguars On SI noted. Lawrence was an MVP finalist and Coen was a Coach of the Year finalist. The one thing missing was playoff success.
That run has carried into 2026. The Jaguars are 19-7 since the start of last season, Yahoo Sports noted, and the offense has hit a historic pace. With more than 30 points against Baltimore last week, Jacksonville reached 700 points in Coen’s first 25 games, tying Chip Kelly and Ted Marchibroda for the third-fewest games needed to reach that mark as a head coach in the Super Bowl era, according to FOX Sports.
Lawrence credits his coach directly. After the Ravens win, he called Coen “relentless” on Prime Video’s postgame show.
Trevor Lawrence is playing like an MVP candidate
The quarterback numbers are the strongest of Lawrence’s career. He has a 111.7 passer rating with 18 touchdowns and four interceptions, per FOX, and his 8.6 yards per attempt lead the NFL, according to ESPN. Over his 25 regular-season games under Coen, he has thrown for nearly 6,000 yards with 47 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.
The underlying data is just as strong. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell ranked Lawrence third in his midseason MVP voting, noting that he has not had a multi-turnover game, has the league’s lowest off-target rate at 9.2% and leads the NFL with a 91.5 QBR outside the pocket. We placed him among the top challengers in our NFL midseason awards, behind Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy.
What stands out most is efficiency over volume. Lawrence’s 1,932 yards do not lead the league, but almost every throw is doing damage. In the 33-10 win at Baltimore, he completed 16 of 26 passes for 242 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions, and the Jaguars outgained the Ravens 319-227.
A defense that was already good, and just got better
This is not a one-sided team. Jacksonville ranks in the top five in both scoring offense and scoring defense, ESPN noted when it listed Coen among its Coach of the Year candidates. That kind of balance is rare.
Then the front office went shopping. Facing injuries to defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton and safety Eric Murray, the Jaguars traded for three defensive veterans before the deadline, Forbes reported:
- Jessie Bates III, the All-Pro safety, from Atlanta. Our Jessie Bates trade story covers the deal.
- Jordan Davis, the defensive tackle, from Philadelphia.
- Davon Godchaux, another interior lineman to rebuild depth up front.
Yahoo’s power rankings described it as Jacksonville pushing a lot of chips in, giving up real draft capital for a shot at a title. We graded all three moves in our trade deadline winners and losers, and our breakdown of what the Jaguars’ trades mean for the Bills looks at the AFC race. The full list of deals is in our 2026 trade deadline tracker.
The case that Jacksonville is the AFC’s best team
The betting market is moving in that direction. Jacksonville’s odds to win the AFC improved to +350 after the deadline, Forbes noted, and Bleacher Report listed the Jaguars at +850 to win the Super Bowl, behind only Buffalo, San Francisco and Chicago.
Here is how the Jaguars stack up with the AFC’s other top teams:
| Team | Record | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 7-1 | Hold the AFC’s No. 1 seed |
| Denver Broncos | 7-2 | Five-game win streak, on bye |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-2 | Best point differential, No. 3 seed |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-2 | Play Cincinnati for AFC North lead |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | Mahomes back from elbow scare |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6-2 | Joe Burrow, our midseason MVP pick |
Buffalo has the better record, and the Bills hold the top seed. But Jacksonville has the strongest point differential in the league and has won four games by 20 or more points. When a team beats bad opponents easily and still handles good ones, point differential is often a better predictor of the second half than record alone. For the full seeding picture, see our AFC playoff picture after Week 9.
The AFC South is close to settled, so the real race is for seeding
Jacksonville’s division situation changes what the second half is about. The rest of the AFC South is a combined 6-19: Houston is 3-5, Indianapolis is 2-7 and Tennessee is 1-7. With a three-game lead at the halfway point, the Jaguars’ playoff spot looks secure, and PFN’s model gave them a 99.4% chance to make the field, the highest of any AFC team, according to Yahoo Sports.
That means the goal is not just January football. It is the No. 1 seed and the only first-round bye in the AFC. Buffalo holds that spot at 7-1, with Denver right behind at 7-2. A weak division schedule gives Jacksonville a chance to stack wins while the AFC North teams play each other and the Bills face their own tests. Home-field advantage would mean the road to the Super Bowl runs through EverBank Stadium, a scenario nobody in Jacksonville was discussing two years ago.
The case against: what could still go wrong
The Jaguars have real questions, and Coen has said so himself. After the Baltimore win, he and his players pointed to self-inflicted mistakes and missed late chances in both losses, BVM Sports reported. Jacksonville’s two defeats came by a combined 10 points, which cuts both ways: the team is close to unbeaten, but it has not always finished.
There is also the playoff question. Jacksonville’s 13-4 season in 2025 ended without postseason success, and that is the part of the Coen-Lawrence résumé still blank. The trade deadline was a bet that this defense, with Bates in the back end and Davis in the middle, can win in January against the Bills, Broncos or Chiefs.
Finally, the price. The Jaguars gave up draft picks to make this push. If it does not end in a deep playoff run, those picks will be part of the conversation.
What’s next for Jacksonville
The Jaguars visit 1-7 Tennessee on Sunday as 10.5-point favorites, the largest spread of Week 10, per ESPN. It is a trap-game setup on paper, and Coen has been pushing his team to stay sharp rather than coast, BVM Sports noted. Our ranking of every Week 10 game by playoff stakes has the full slate.
Our verdict: the Jaguars are a true AFC contender and have a strong case as the conference’s most complete team. Whether they are the best team will be decided in January, the one place this group has not yet proven itself.
Sources: FOX Sports, Forbes, Yahoo Sports (2, 3), Jaguars On SI, BVM Sports, ESPN via ABC7, Bleacher Report, ESPN schedule
Join the conversation