Bills vs Jets looks like a mismatch on paper. Buffalo is 7-1 and leads the AFC, while New York is 2-7 and has lost four straight. But the Bills come into MetLife Stadium on a Monday-to-Sunday turnaround, with a banged-up offensive line and a new worry in the secondary after cornerback Christian Benford hurt his wrist in Minnesota.
Kickoff is Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1 p.m. ET on CBS. Here’s what matters before the game, from the injury report to the betting line to the matchups that could keep this closer than the records suggest.
Bills vs Jets: the quick facts
| Bills | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-1 | 2-7 |
| Last game | Beat Vikings 23-6 (Monday) | Lost at Chiefs 35-12 (Sunday) |
| Points per game | 33.3 entering Week 9 | 20.2 |
| Streak | Four straight wins | Four straight losses |
| Spread | Bills -7.5 at BetMGM | |
| Total | 51.5 |
Buffalo has the clear statistical edge. SportsBettingDime, using pregame numbers, had the Bills at 33.0 points and 393.1 yards per game against the Jets’ 19.8 points and 309.9 yards. Dimers’ model gave Buffalo a 76.6% chance to win, and SportsLine’s AI projected a 38-28 Bills win.
The Christian Benford problem
The most important Bills injury this week isn’t on the offensive line. Benford, Buffalo’s top cornerback, hurt his right wrist late in the second quarter Monday night while covering Justin Jefferson, according to a Yahoo Sports injury report. He was carted to the locker room, had an X-ray at halftime, came back with the wrist taped and then left again in the third quarter after contact on a running play. He didn’t return.
The team hasn’t given a Week 10 status yet. If Benford can’t go, a secondary that already worried Bills fans gets thinner just as general manager Brandon Beane works the phones before Tuesday’s 4 p.m. ET trade deadline. We covered Buffalo’s search for help in our look at the Bills’ safety trade targets, and a Benford absence would make a cornerback just as useful as a safety.
The rest of the Bills’ list:
- LT Dion Dawkins (ribs) and LG Alec Anderson (ankle) both missed Monday’s game. Tylan Grable started at left tackle and Austin Corbett at left guard.
- DL Greg Gaines (calf) has missed two straight games.
- TE Dalton Kincaid rolled his left ankle early in the fourth quarter Monday but returned.
- WR Joshua Palmer is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury and can’t return before Dec. 6.
What the Jets bring
New York’s season has slipped away. The Jets have lost seven of their last eight, and Yahoo Sports’ Jets coverage noted that Aaron Glenn is 5-21 in a season and a half as head coach. Bleacher Report’s power rankings suggested a coaching change may soon be necessary.
The biggest question is Garrett Wilson. The Jets’ top receiver, with 43 catches for 527 yards and three touchdowns, missed the Kansas City game in the concussion protocol after a helmet-to-helmet hit from Jeremy Chinn on Nov. 1. He has to clear the protocol to face Buffalo.
Without Wilson, the Jets’ offense stalled in Kansas City. Geno Smith threw for 165 yards, New York managed 229 total yards, and the Chiefs sacked Smith five times, according to the Associated Press. Smith has been sacked 28 times this season for a league-high 236 yards lost. The Jets kicked four first-half field goals and trailed only 14-12 at halftime before the game got away.
There was one positive. Breece Hall returned from a quadriceps injury after missing five games and ran 15 times for 61 yards. On defense, rookie edge rusher David Bailey had two sacks and forced two fumbles on a single drive against the Chiefs, and Bleacher Report called him a potential Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Matchups that could make it close
The Jets’ pass rush against Buffalo’s patched line. Josh Allen was sacked four times Monday with Grable and Corbett on the left side. Bailey is exactly the kind of player who can exploit that if Dawkins and Anderson stay out.
Geno Smith against Buffalo’s pass defense. Before Monday, the Bills had allowed 20.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, 28th in the league, with opposing passers averaging 269 yards, according to The Big Lead’s analysis via Yahoo. Carson Wentz’s 81-yard night in Minnesota will help those numbers, but it says more about the Vikings’ offense than about a fixed secondary. If Wilson plays and Benford doesn’t, this is where the Jets have their best chance.
James Cook against a tired Jets defense. Cook carried 31 times for 107 yards and a touchdown against the league’s top scoring defense, as we detailed in our Bills vs Vikings recap. Buffalo showed it will lean on him when the passing game stalls, and the Jets allow 24.8 points per game.
What the betting market says
Buffalo opened as an 8.5-point road favorite at some books and has settled around 7.5, with BetMGM listing the Bills at -7.5 and -450 on the moneyline. The total sits at 51.5.
The trends lean Buffalo. SI’s betting team notes the Bills are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games against the Jets and 6-2 against the spread entering Monday’s game, while the Jets are 0-3 against the spread in their last three. SI’s Iain MacMillan still took the Jets plus the points, pointing to a defense that ranks 16th in EPA per play allowed. SportsBettingDime’s model made the same pick.
How this game shapes the AFC race
Denver is on bye this week at 7-2. A Buffalo win would push the Bills to 8-1 and a full game clear of the Broncos for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the spot we tracked in our AFC playoff picture. It would also be Buffalo’s second AFC East game of the season, after a Week 4 loss to New England in Orchard Park that still gives the Patriots the head-to-head edge.
The Bills should win this game. Whether they do it comfortably may depend on two things they won’t know until Friday: whether Benford’s wrist holds up and whether Garrett Wilson clears the protocol. Watch the Wednesday and Thursday practice reports, and watch the transaction wire before 4 p.m. ET Tuesday, because Beane still has time to change this matchup.
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