The NFC playoff picture after Week 9 has one division that looks like a juggernaut, one that’s led by a team two games under .500, and a wild-card race where the defending Super Bowl champions are currently on the outside.
San Francisco holds the No. 1 seed at 7-1. The NFC North has all four of its teams in playoff position right now. And Carolina leads the NFC South at 3-5, thanks to a tiebreaker and a Sunday night loss by Tampa Bay.
Here’s where everything stands with Minnesota still to play Buffalo on Monday night.
NFC playoff picture: the current seven
| Seed | Team | Record | How they got there |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 7-1 | NFC West leader |
| 2 | Minnesota Vikings | 6-1 | NFC North leader; hosts Buffalo Monday |
| 3 | New York Giants | 5-2-1 | NFC East leader |
| 4 | Carolina Panthers | 3-5 | NFC South leader on tiebreaker |
| 5 | Chicago Bears | 7-2 | Top wild card |
| 6 | Detroit Lions | 6-2 | Wild card |
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | Final wild card |
In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (5-4), Los Angeles Rams (5-4), Dallas Cowboys (4-5), New Orleans Saints (3-5), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6), Atlanta Falcons (3-6), Arizona Cardinals (3-6).
Long shots: Washington Commanders (2-5-1), Philadelphia Eagles (2-7).
NFC North: the best division in football
No division in the league has been stronger. The Vikings are 6-1, the Bears are 7-2, the Lions are 6-2 and the Packers are 6-3. Bleacher Report noted last week that if all four reached the playoffs, it would be a first in NFL history.
Chicago moved up to the No. 5 seed with Sunday night’s 27-24 win over Tampa Bay, its fourth straight victory, even with Caleb Williams throwing four interceptions. The Bears are on bye in Week 10.
Monday night matters a lot here. Minnesota (6-1) leads Chicago (7-2) by winning percentage, with one fewer game played. If Buffalo beats the Vikings, the Bears move into first place in the NFC North, according to Windy City Gridiron. If Minnesota wins, the Vikings improve to 7-1 and keep the No. 2 seed. Our Bills vs Vikings preview has the full breakdown.
Green Bay holds the last playoff spot after its 45-27 rout of New England. The Packers host the Vikings on Sunday in the biggest NFC game of Week 10.
NFC South: a race nobody wants to win
Tampa Bay led the NFC South for less than 12 hours, according to Sports Illustrated. The Buccaneers’ loss in Chicago dropped them to 3-6 and handed first place back to Carolina, even though the Panthers lost to Denver earlier Sunday.
Carolina and New Orleans are both 3-5, and the Panthers hold the tiebreaker with a 1-1 record in division games. The Saints are right there after their 23-22 overtime win over Cleveland, and the two teams meet in New Orleans on Sunday with first place on the line. Atlanta, at 3-6 after a 34-17 loss to Cincinnati in Madrid, is only a half-game back.
Whoever wins the division may do it with a record close to .500, but the winner still gets a home playoff game.
NFC East: Giants on top of a weak division
The Giants are 5-2-1 after a 19-11 win over Philadelphia and lead the division. Bleacher Report pointed out before Week 9 that New York hadn’t yet beaten a team with a winning record, so the second half will show how real this team is.
The rest of the division is struggling. Dallas is 4-5 after beating Indianapolis. Washington is 2-5-1, and Philadelphia has fallen to 2-7 after losing Jalen Hurts for the season to blood clots.
NFC West: the 49ers lead, and the champs are fighting
San Francisco has the best record in the conference at 7-1 after a win over Las Vegas, and it added defensive tackle DeForest Buckner in a trade with Indianapolis last month.
Behind the 49ers, it gets messy. The Rams have won three straight to reach 5-4, but Puka Nacua’s knee injury has thrown a cloud over that run. Seattle, the defending Super Bowl champion, is also 5-4. Athlon Sports noted that the Rams, Seahawks and Packers are fighting for the final wild-card spot, and the Rams and Seahawks play each other twice in the last three weeks of the season.
Arizona is 3-6 and has already been a seller, trading away Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jacoby Brissett.
The race for the No. 1 seed
Only the top seed in each conference gets a first-round bye, so the battle at the top is worth watching closely.
San Francisco entered Week 9 with a 35.9% chance of earning the NFC’s No. 1 seed, according to PFF’s projections, and the 49ers did their part with a win over Las Vegas. Minnesota is the closest challenger. A win over Buffalo on Monday night would lift the Vikings to 7-1, level with the 49ers in the loss column.
Chicago is the dark horse at 7-2. The Bears have won four straight, and their defense has carried them through games like Sunday night, when the offense turned the ball over five times and still found a way to win.
Week 10 games with NFC playoff stakes
- Minnesota at Green Bay (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET): A division showdown between two playoff teams.
- Carolina at New Orleans: First place in the NFC South.
- Washington at New York Giants (Thursday night): The Giants can widen their division lead on a short week.
- San Francisco at Dallas: The Cowboys need wins to climb back into the race.
- Los Angeles Rams at Arizona: The Rams’ first game since the Nacua scare.
- Seattle at Las Vegas: The defending champions need to keep pace.
Chicago, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia are all on bye.
What’s next for the NFC playoff picture
The first shake-up comes Monday night in Minneapolis. A Vikings win keeps them atop the NFC North; a loss opens the door for Chicago.
FieldPylon will update the NFC playoff picture after Monday night and every week through the end of the season.
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